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AP

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 EPS of $0.83 beat S&P Global consensus of $0.75; revenue of $277.1M was modestly below the $278.8M consensus. Sequential declines were driven by the expected absence of Q4 performance fees and two fewer calendar days; YoY growth reflected higher average AUM. Bolded: EPS beat, slight revenue miss* (consensus values from S&P Global*).
  • AUM ended at $162.4B (+1% QoQ, +1% YoY) with net client outflows of $(2.84)B, including a $1.2B mid-cap growth separate account rebalance; equity outflows were partly offset by continued positive flows in fixed income and alternatives (11th straight quarter of positive fixed-income flows) .
  • GAAP operating margin compressed to 31.2% (from 36.7% in Q4 2024), with adjusted margin at 32.1% (from 36.8%); drivers included the lapse of performance fees and seasonal compensation, partly offset by variable comp declining with revenue .
  • Dividend declared: $0.68 per share (~80% of quarterly cash generation), down from $0.84 variable plus $0.50 special in Q4 given lower performance fees; management reiterated an ~80% variable quarterly payout policy and expects to refinance $60M of senior notes maturing in Aug-2025 .
  • Strategic progress: launched two new strategies (Franchise; Global Special Situations), strengthened wealth-intermediated channel (now ~60% of AUM), and accelerated fixed income/alternatives traction (EMsights net inflows ~$304M in Q1; 11th consecutive quarter of positive FI flows) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Fixed income and alternatives momentum: “First quarter of 2025 marks the 11th consecutive quarter of positive fixed income flows”; EMsights strategies raised ~$304M net inflows year-to-date and will benefit from 3-year records hitting in 2025 .
  • New product launches and platform expansion: “We launched two new investment strategies, the Artisan Franchise strategy and the Artisan Global Special Situations strategy,” broadening degrees of freedom and wealth-channel appeal .
  • Wealth channel strategy gaining traction: Approximately $97B of AUM sourced from intermediated wealth (~60% of total) with 172 relationships >$50M and 117 using 3+ strategies; management is reorienting distribution to the channel .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue and margin down sequentially: Revenue fell 7% QoQ to $277.1M as Q4’s $14.7M performance fees rolled off and two fewer days reduced revenue by ~$5.4M; GAAP operating margin fell to 31.2% from 36.7% .
  • Net outflows and a large rebalance: Net client outflows of $(2.84)B included a single $1.2B DC-plan rebalance in Mid-Cap Growth; base equity flows remain pressured even as FI and alternatives offset .
  • Compensation/seasonality and LTI dynamics: Seasonal Q1 comp (retirement/health/payload taxes), LTI expense (including retirement acceleration and market valuation changes) lifted operating expenses QoQ despite lower incentive comp on revenues .

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs prior periods and estimates

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$264.4 $297.0 $277.1
GAAP Operating Income ($M)$77.7 $109.1 $86.5
GAAP Operating Margin (%)29.4% 36.7% 31.2%
Adjusted Operating Income ($M)$81.6 $109.3 $89.0
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)30.9% 36.8% 32.1%
GAAP Net Income to APAM ($M)$59.5 $69.7 $61.1
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.84 $0.97 $0.82
Adjusted Net Income ($M)$61.6 $85.2 $67.0
Adjusted EPS ($/Adj. Share)$0.76 $1.05 $0.83
Performance Fees ($M)$0.0 $14.7 $0.0

Consensus vs actuals (S&P Global data; asterisk denotes SPGI values):

  • Revenue: Q1 2025 consensus $278.8M*, actual $277.1M → slight miss .
  • EPS: Q1 2025 consensus $0.75*, actual $0.83 → beat.
  • Estimate count: EPS (4); Revenue (1). (Values retrieved from S&P Global)

Revenue composition

Revenue Component ($M)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Mgmt Fees – Funds (Artisan Funds & Global Funds)$165.5 $178.4 $174.7
Mgmt Fees – Separate Accts & Other$98.9 $103.9 $102.4
Performance Fees$0.0 $14.7 $0.0
Total Revenues$264.4 $297.0 $277.1

KPIs and balance sheet highlights

KPIQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Ending AUM ($B)$160.4 $161.2 $162.4
Average AUM ($B)$154.2 $165.4 $166.7
Net Client Flows ($B)$(0.52) $(0.82) $(2.84)
“Distributions not reinvested” ($B)$(0.085) $(0.795) $(0.116)
Investment returns & other ($B)$10.83 $(5.01) $4.14
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$201.2 $212.9
Total Debt ($M)$200.0 $200.0
Variable Dividend / Share ($)$0.84 (plus $0.50 special) $0.68
Weighted Avg Recurring Fee Rate (bps)68 (ex perf fees) 68 (ex perf fees)

Guidance Changes

Metric/ItemPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent UpdateChange
Fixed expenses (ex LTI)FY 2025Mid- to low-single-digit increase (Jan commentary)Reiterated mid- to low-single-digit increase Maintained
Long-term incentive amortizationFY 2025~$75M (ex mark-to-market) No change indicated in Q1 call (notes partial-quarter impact in Q1) Maintained
Dividend policyOngoing~80% of quarterly cash generation; year-end special from withheld 20%Reiterated; declared $0.68 for Q1 2025 Maintained
DebtAug 2025Expect to refinance $60M senior notes due Aug 2025 New color
Performance feesSeasonalityMajority have Dec measurement; minimal in other quartersQ1 had $0; seasonality reiterated Seasonal

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (prior-2)Q4 2024 (prior-1)Q1 2025 (current)Trend
Fixed income/alternatives growthEmphasis on alpha/dispersions; FI/alt strategies strong; pipeline building Two credit franchises raised $3.6B in 2024; performance fees contributed; FI/alt momentum 11th consecutive FI inflow quarter; EMsights +$304M inflows YTD; ramp marketing at 3-year marks Positive and accelerating
Intermediated wealth channelFraming shift toward wealth demand; toolkit expansion ~26% non-U.S. clients; continued wealth focus Wealth channel ~60% of AUM ($97B); 172 relationships >$50M; distribution realignment Growing strategic focus
Capacity managementManaging IV and other mature strategies; prioritize performance Continue capacity discipline; foundational assets impacting fee rate mix Some soft-closes remain; potential for selective capacity reopening; large-cap strategies have room Disciplined; selective openings
Performance fees seasonalityMostly Dec; small overall share ~$17M in Q4; ~3% AUM subject to performance fees None in Q1; reiterated annual seasonality Seasonal; Q4-centric
Expenses & marginsOperating leverage as newer teams scale 2025 LTI ~$75M; fixed costs modestly up; Q4 margins improved Fixed costs guidance maintained; seasonal Q1 comp and LTI nuances; margins compressed QoQ Stable guidance; seasonal variability
M&A / lift-outsEvaluating opportunities; private markets interest Strong pipeline; foundational capital supports new teams Active pipeline; “no-brainer” filter; later-stage real estate conversations Active, disciplined

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and resilience: “Our discipline and long-term approach are competitive advantages… we have built our firm to operate consistently and predictably through all environments.”
  • Product launches: “In the first quarter, we launched two new investment strategies, the Artisan Franchise strategy and the Artisan Global Special Situations strategy.”
  • Wealth channel focus: “Of our $162 billion in AUM at quarter end, approximately $97 billion was sourced from the intermediated wealth channel.”
  • Fixed income traction: “First quarter of 2025 marks the 11th consecutive quarter of positive fixed income flows.”
  • Succession: “Jason Gottlieb, our President, will succeed me as Chief Executive Officer effective in June… I will remain… as Executive Chair.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Fixed income/alternatives expansion: Management sees multiple paths to grow FI/alt via degrees of freedom in existing teams and selective lift-outs/M&A; Global Unconstrained highlighted as a marquee liquid alternative for wealth clients .
  • Expenses and margins: Q1 G&A benefited from FX gains and lower travel; fixed expense growth guidance intact; LTI expensing was partial in Q1 due to late-January grant; variable comp flexes with revenue .
  • Capacity: Some strategies remain soft-closed; potential selective reopening as conditions permit; ample capacity in larger-cap/global strategies and EMsights .
  • M&A pipeline: Active evaluation across multiple asset classes; disciplined standards; later-stage conversations in private real estate noted .
  • Institutional vs wealth: Institutional business remains strong with growing EM debt opportunity as EMsights hits 3-year marks; wealth channel provides leverage via multi-strategy relationships .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 consensus (S&P Global): Revenue $278.8M* vs actual $277.1M; EPS $0.75* vs actual $0.83 (beat). Estimate counts: EPS (4); Revenue (1). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implications: EPS likely benefits from higher non-operating gains vs Q4 (swing from $(3.6)M) to +$10.9M total investment gains and disciplined variable comp; revenue miss reflects performance-fee seasonality and two fewer days .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Seasonal dynamics matter: Expect slower Q1s absent performance fees and with seasonal comp; Q4 remains the primary performance-fee capture quarter .
  • Structural growth in FI/alts: 11 straight quarters of positive FI flows and EMsights momentum underpin medium-term mix shift and durable fee base expansion (albeit at a slightly lower blended fee rate) .
  • Wealth channel as catalyst: ~60% of AUM in intermediated wealth with deep multi-strategy relationships increases cross-sell potential and revenue durability .
  • Capacity discipline should support alpha: Ongoing soft closes and selective reopenings prioritize performance over asset gathering, supporting long-term compounding .
  • Capital returns remain robust and formulaic: Variable dividend at ~80% of cash generation with potential year-end special; Q1 variable dividend $0.68 reflects lower performance fees .
  • Balance sheet flexibility: $200M debt (0.5x leverage), $100M undrawn revolver; plans to refinance $60M notes due Aug-2025; cash $212.9M provides seed and payout capacity .
  • Watch for catalysts: EMsights 3-year track records (distribution opening), capacity adjustments, and potential lift-out/M&A in private real estate and other areas could accelerate flows and diversify earnings .

Appendix: Additional Data

AUM by Vehicle (selected)

($M)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Ending AUM – Funds & Global Funds$77,414 $77,614 $79,220
Ending AUM – Separate Accts & Other$82,970 $83,594 $83,170
Average AUM – Funds & Global Funds$74,590 $79,955 $80,446
Average AUM – Separate Accts & Other$79,568 $85,437 $86,297

Notable items and one-offs

  • Q1 2025 included investment of $46.8M to economically hedge franchise capital awards; deconsolidation of a private fund following third-party contributions .
  • Q4 2024 included ~$17M of performance fees across 7 strategies; variable dividend $0.84 plus $0.50 special .

Footnote: All consensus estimate values marked with an asterisk (*) are sourced from S&P Global and are provided without document citations.